Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that polarised the country and caused chaos, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the political, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an highly polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with even the essentials. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unification or the current situation. They writes two articles that aim for impartiality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and societal data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions range over national emblems, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens say they support unity but refuse increased taxation or introducing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a feckless official who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified arguments, he commented. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will ultimately not succeed but both parties has has something to acquire from the opposing positions."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster must engage with the debate, urged the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
